Resource Depletion

The past 210 years have seen some of the most amazing developments in human science and technology thanks to the developments of the Industrial Age and its successor, the Information Age. However, the elements that make this highly sophisticated society possible are rapidly being depleted, leading scientists and environmentalists alike to growing concern about human survival.

The reason for this concern is really simply. Today's industrial civilization is based on a trinity of resources: metals, hydrocarbons (fossil fuels) and electricity. Each of these elements is dependent upon the other two. Without electricity and metals, there would be no way to extract the hydrocarbons, or fossil fuels, that create more electricity and process more metals from ore. Without fossil fuels, there would be no efficient way to generate electric power.



In fact, electricity is the most fragile of the triad, and electrical failure gives an early-warning signal that the entire basis of contemporary society may collapse. Worldwide electricity use increased by 70 percent in the period between 1990 and 2008. Contrast this 41 percent per capita usage increase with the fact that the generation of global energy per capita is not increasing significantly. In short, the world is using energy faster than it can be produced.

Added to this grim reality is the fact that the global economy rests on fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas. Not only do these petroleum products provide fuel, they're used in many other products of today's civilization, such as asphalt, fertilizer, lubricants, paint, and plastics. Between 1850 and 2010, people on Earth used about half of the world's estimated 2 trillion barrels of petroleum. Currently the world's population uses about 30 billion barrels of oil annually. Some analysts predict that by the year 2030, oil production will be down to about half of that amount. Highly polluting coal and difficult-to-transport natural gas also are disappearing.

Meanwhile, global mineral depletion is more difficult to determine. That's because 1) recycling can reclaim usable minerals; 2) economic trade circles the planet, making it difficult to track mineral use; 3) sometimes one mineral can replace another. However, the U.S. Geological Survey estimates that most nonrenewable resources have passed their peak amounts. Among these are bauxite (peaking in 1943), copper (1998), iron ore (1951), magnesium (1966), phosphate rock (1980), potash (1967), rare earth metals (1984), tin (1945), titanium (1964), and zinc (1969). Despite recycling, these resources continue to be depleted.

Finally, the declining production of fresh, clean water is making this resource even more valuable than fossil fuels in some locations. The United Nations' Global Environment Outlook 4 report estimates that nearly 2 billion people – a third of the world's current population – will live in regions with water scarcity by 2025, while the remaining two-thirds are expected to be under "water stress." That means they will be poised at threshold beyond which there isn't enough water to sustain agriculture, industry, energy production and domestic life.

Added to an increasing decline of arable land for food production, the future of the world looks bleak from a global resource depletion viewpoint. The question that remains is whether humanity will make difficult decisions about such things as population and energy conservations in order to preserve the human species.